This one comes from Brian Marshall of New York equity researcher BroadPoint AmTech (now part of Gleacher), who predicts that because of a deal AT&T cut with Apple for the iPad 3G, the U.S. telecommunications giant will continue to have carrier exclusivity for the iPhone until at least 2011.
His reasoning goes like this: Apple hasn't been happy with AT&T's network performance for the iPhone. AT&T wanted to remain the exclusive U.S. carrier for the Apple phone, keeping it out of rival Verizon Wireless' hands. So it offered a generous and recurring monthly data program for the iPad.
While we're taking this with an ice cube-size grain of salt, we can see the reasoning. AT&T threw Apple a bone that made the 3G iPad even more desirable than it was.
One thing, though: another firm, Global Wireless Solutions, released a study this week comparing all the major wireless providers in New York City. It found that both Verizon and AT&T were about 99 percent reliable, with throughput up to 20 times what they offered five years ago.
Assuming that GWS' data is accurate, and that AT&T did actually make the iPad deal to keep the iPhone away from Verizon a little bit longer, maybe that deal doesn't matter--at least for iPhone owners in New York.
Originally posted at Crave